The fellow who accurately forecast the 2008 Global Financial Crisis now says there is a one-in-three chance of a home-grown recession next year.

Gerard Minack is the principal of Minack Advisors and a former global strategist with Wall Street giant Morgan Stanley.  He blames the state of the domestic energy market for upping the possibility that Australia's extended run of economic growth would reach an end.  If the domestic energy debacle continues, investment would ebb.

"Uncertainty about medium-term energy pricing will presumably reduce the prospect of stronger investment spending in any industry where energy is a significant cost," he said.

Mr. Minack says the mining bust didn't hurt Australia as badly as it could have because it was balanced out by the housing boom.  However, it's not clear what might would support the country's economic growth if housing fades next year, as he predicts it would.

The last time Australia experienced a recession was in the first half of 1991.