The odds are getting worse that current efforts will succeed in preventing man-made global warming from raising the Earth's average by an average of 2 C degrees.

A study in the journal Nature Climate Change says that there's only a 5 percent chance Earth will warm 2 C Degrees or less over pre-industrial levels by the end of this century. But there's a 90 percent chance that temperatures will increase at least that much by the year 2100, and possibly as much as 4.9 degrees.  The remaining five percent is the nightmare of runaway global warming - Mad Max-type climate change.

Even more depressing is that there is only a one percent chance of meeting the target of the Paris Climate Accord, which is a maximum 1.5 C degree rise. 

University of Washington statistics and sociology professor Adrian Raftery is the lead author of the study.  "The goal of 2 degrees is very much a best-case scenario," he said in a statement.  "It is achievable, but only with major, sustained effort on all fronts over the next 80 years."

And that seems pretty unlikely under the current geo-political conditions:  Nationalism is raging around the globe, with right-wing governments embracing climate change denial to rationalize and justify grubbing short-term profits in manufacturing and power generation.  Developing nations resent being told to curb activities that pollute while bringing economic growth by countries that are comparatively awash in modern luxuries. 

Interestingly, population growth might not have as much impact on global warming as some expect.  The study says that is because much of this century's projected population growth will come in Africa, where per capita CO2 emissions will remain relatively low.