Australia is among the G20 nations that could miss their 2030 emissions reduction targets according to a United Nations report.

The annual emissions gap report (.pdf link) looks at what action is needed to keep global warming to a maximum of 2 C Degrees over pre-industrial levels as was agreed to in the Paris Climate Accord, and what nations are actually doing.  And in the case of half of the G20, it's not enough.

"Current commitments expressed in the NDCs are inadequate to bridge the emissions gap in 2030," the report warns.  "Technically, it is still possible to bridge the gap to ensure global warming stays well below 2C and 1.5C, but if NDC ambitions are not increased before 2030, exceeding the 1.5C goal can no longer be avoided."

Australia committed to reducing its carbon output by 26 to 28 percent off of 2005 levels, achieved by 2030. But the UN report says, "There has been no improvement in Australia's climate policy since 2017 and emission levels for 2030 are projected to be well above the NDC target."  It continues, "The latest projection published by the government shows that emissions would remain at high levels rather than reducing in line with the 2030 target."

Globally, the report says CO2 emissions actually rose in 2017 for the first time in four years, mostly because of economic growth.  Human activity produced a record high of 53.5 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide last year.  To have a 66 percent chance of meeting the 2 C Paris target, emissions would need to be down to about 40 gigatonnes a year by 2030.

That leaves the Earth careening towards a temperature rise of 3.2 C degrees by the end of this century, or the report says.

"There is still a tremendous gap between words and deeds, between the targets agreed by governments worldwide to stabilise our climate and the measures to achieve these goals," said Dr Gunnar Luderer, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and one of the authors of the study.