After weeks of aggressive campaigning, incumbent Dilma Rousseff has closed the gap between her and former Environment Minster Marina Silva in the latest presidential polls.  The two are now in a statistical dead heat in the home stretch before the 5 October Presidential election.

In the latest Ibope poll, Rousseff and Silva are tied at 41 percent in the second round run-off that is expected to decide the election.  The MDA poll Rousseff would get 42 percent of the votes against 41 percent for Silva if the runoff were held today.  While Rousseff has risen in the polls, Silva’s numbers have been shrinking.  The more conservative, pro-market candidate isn’t expected to get out of the first round.

Silva would be Brazil’s first black president, as well as the first environmentalist.  She’s captured imaginations in a country disgusted by rampant corruption, police excess, and poor public services.  But the Rousseff campaign has been successful chipping away at her support by playing up economic fears, questioning Silva’s ability to lead Latin America’s largest economy.

Rousseff also has a strong power base among low income Brazilians, whose lot has been improved with Socialist policies.  Tens of millions have been lifted out of poverty into the lower middle class over the past decade.  Between 2001 and 2012, Brazil reduced extreme poverty from 14 percent of the population to 3.5 percent.  The number of malnourished people dropped from 19 percent to below 5 percent, removing Brazil from the United Nations World Hunger Map.

Overall, it might be the world’s most-progressive election – A Socialist versus a Green, and both leading candidates are women.  Brazil’s presidential future will be decided on the Left.