Exit polls suggest a big upset in the Brazilian presidential election.  Incumbent Dilma Rousseff came in first place, as expected.  But second place did not go to environmentalist Marina Silva – it went to pro-business centrist Aecio Neves, who appears to be on track to face Rousseff in a run-off.

An exit poll broadcast by TV Globo just after polls closed showed Rousseff with 44 percent of the vote, compared to 30 percent for Neves and 22 percent for Silva.  Results hadn’t yet come in from low-income districts where Rousseff is more popular.  If Rousseff doesn’t clear 50 percent, it’ll go to a run-off on 26 October.

Dilma leads in a projected runoff with Neves, who favors a more austere government with fewer social programs and regulations.  That would seem to fly in the face of the massive protests that preceded the World Cup earlier this year, which brought a million Brazilians into the streets to the lack of investment in Education, Infrastructure, and Health Care.  Brazilians appear less likely to opt for less of what they demanded.

As for Marina Silva, her initial surge of support withered under a barrage of negative ads that accused her of flip-flopping on issues like taxes and gay marriage.