The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) upped the ante when it comes to Ebola Doomsday Scenarios.  Whereas yesterday the UN World Health Organization (WHO) predicted more than 20,000 infected by the killer virus within six weeks, the CDC slides it forward to 21,000 by 30 September – and 1.4 Million infections by mid January.

The CDC produced computer models showing best- and worst-case scenarios, based on data from August.

The best-case model has the epidemic pretty much ended by 20 January, 2015.  Achieving that would require new burial procedures with no one touching the bodies of Ebola victims, contravening the prevailing local customs, as well as a massive increase in treatment centers to successfully isolate at least 70 percent of Ebola patients.

The problem is that no one really knows how many people the virus has killed or infected during this West African Ebola Outbreak.  The WHO raised the death toll to just over 2,800 lives lost.  But it’s widely believed that the official death toll is vastly underestimated, because so many infections are happening beyond the reach of health care workers.  And given the rate of infections in the worst-hit countries – Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea – it’s probably more than that by now.

The CDC’s worst-case model with 1.4 million infections reflects that, assuming that things are much worse than they appear to be with two and a half times as reported.  It also assumes there will be no changes to the way that patients are being treated – or often, not being treated.

“My gut feeling is, the actions we’re taking now are going to make that worst-case scenario not come to pass,” Said CDC director Dr. Thomas Frieden.  “But it’s important to understand that it could happen.”